You might find Billy not buying the 360 SKU at all
You're contradicting yourself a bit (nothing new there).
I asked whether you think the hypothetical kid is going to eschew the 360 version of the game, despite all his friends having it, so that he can get the U version with it's relatively small and untested online and you said "when did I say that Billy would be ditching his 360"
But now you're saying he'll not get the 360 version.
Pick a side of the fence.
Do you think a kid who buys COD every year to play with his mates but this year has got the U on preorder is going to buy the game on the 360 or on the U?
I'll give you a clue:
Even if they both came out on the same day he'd go for the 360 version, because that's what all his mates are playing - and he wants to play with his friends.
But they don't come out on the same day. The U version will be two and a half weeks later.
...generational fatigue...
Yes, you've learned a new buzz phrase, we get it...
Billy...wants to play NSMB U, ZombiU and Rayman Legends...
Billy's my hypothetical example, and I say he's got taste and friends. So he's not that bothered about Mario or Rayman, nor about a game that's screaming for multiplayer but doesn't allow it.
...as well as Black Ops 2 that isn't in sub-HD.
Billy isn't overly concerned that the 360's Black Ops 2 has only 600-650 horizontal lines, upscaled by the console to 720 lines on his 720p HD-ready television. A full HD version of the game would not be discernibly different on his tv.
Like I've said, there will be a minority of gamers fed up with having the same console for 7 years.
Agreed - there will be some, and they will be a small minority.
If you're sick of your console there's better options than forking out £300 for a U.
Like paying around £150 for a 360 or £200 for a ps3...
I've seen a few people holding back from buying Darksiders 2, Arkham City GOTY Edition and Assassins Creed 3 to play them on the U.
People will definitely hold off buying games they want at the moment if they've committed to buying the U. It'd be stupid to buy a new console and then not use it. They need to make sure they get a few games so that the U will get some use before it ends up gathering dust.
They're not holding off buying those games because the U version will be better.
Darksiders 2 - currently £20 on the ps3 and 360, or
Darksiders 2 - likely £35 on the U - but you get a slightly faster horse, a different coloured sword, and a few other largely inconsequential bits and bobs...
If you're keen to get the game you'll have it by now. The only reason to hang on and get the U version in a couple of months (by which time it'll likely be around a tenner on the ps3/360) is if you want to pad out your collection.
Pretty much the same story with Arkham City. Everyone's played it and finished it a year ago.
The GOTY edition was ready and released half a year ago (but bosses in Europe decided to hold it back until near Christmas), and there's nothing in it that you can't already get. The gyroscopic/touchscreen additions for the U are a laughing stock, and serve as a fantastic example of how U games will get silly features added to them that make no sense and add nothing to the game, just so the novelty controller gets used.
And as Chris pointed out, nobody has held out on buying the ps3/360 versions of AC3 so they can get it on the U, because it's not out yet. And if they're massive fans of Assassin's Creed most will want it as soon as it comes out - and won't want to wait an extra month to get it on the U. Unless, as mentioned previously, they want to pad out their U collection by buying extra games for it in some attempt to justify the console purchase.
I've also seen plenty of people that weren't considering getting a Wii U until more info on ZombiU and Rayman Legends has been made known, particularly since Ubisoft made it clear that the latter was a true exclusive rather than a timed exclusive.
They're idiots, then. ZombiU doesn't have multiplayer, and Rayman is a very dated game these days. I quite enjoyed the one that came out last year (Legends? Something like that) mainly for nostalgic reasons, but it wasn't actually a very good game. The new game just makes the graphics better (on a game where high detail is pretty much superfluous) and adds a silly gamepad overwatch feature for 2 player games.
No sale.
Tbh I'm surprised that the CoD franchise keeps on selling so well, I'm only getting it for the U because I've stayed clear of the franchise for a couple of years. Activision aren't quite milking the franchise to the same ridiculous extent as they did with Guitar Hero but a new installment that's pretty much a carbon copy of the others every year can't keep on selling the way it has, surely..? 
Partly agree (though they milk it quite enough - it costs a bloody fortune to buy the game and all the content or subscribe to Elite).
COD (and FIFA) will continue to sell exceptionally well, though, despite not really changing massively from year to year because they're all about the online multiplayer. People love it, and will happily keep forking out for new maps etc.
Lots of people become jaded with it, eventually - but there's more new converts to these games than converts away from them, year in year out, so they'll continue to thrive for the foreseeable future.
They need to do something to shake it up a bit imo, different conflicts from the obligatory World War II and modern combat.
Like maybe having some set in the cold war, and possible some set around 13 years in the future.
Oh wait - that's exactly what Treyarch have done with the last two releases...
I'm going to quite happily play Black Ops 2 this year because I've given the last two a miss but if Activision want my money next year they're going to have to shake things up a bit.
I'm sure you'll be missed.
Except I'd imagine that this time next year you'll probably be playing "backup" games on your Nintendo so your coin won't be heading Activision's way whether you play it or not.
