Actually I'll just change this list tomorrow if there are any non-runners declared..... I'll keep this post updated when I get the chance to look at the whole field
So just some of my base criteria I'll be using..
The horse has to be between the ages of 8-12 years old.. any horse below or above that age range is not getting considered based on that fact alone. Looking at the past winners of the national, there's clear dominance from 9-11 year olds, less so from 8 and 12 year olds and pretty much nothing from anything else in the past 50 odd years.
The horse cant be handicapped past 11-06. Looking at the past 20 years, there have only been 3 winners weighing above 11-00 - and nothing past 11-06 (except Red Rum) has won the national in the past 50 odd years.
Anyway, list of runners and riders :
1. Lord Windermere
LORD WIN-NO-MORE - Heaviest weight at 11-10 - so outside of base criteria
2. Many Clouds
MANY DOUBTS - Handicapped at 11-09 - so outside of base criteria
3. Unioniste
TOO YOUNG - 7 years old - so outside of base criteria
4. Rocky Creek
A ROCKY GOOD CHANCE - Right age, right weight.. got round in 5th last year so can stay the distance, not raced much since mind, but raced well to win in February in the Betbright Chase at Kempton. Definitely has a chance, although odds are not that nice
5. First Lieutenant
POOR CHANCE - Looks like he peaked about 3-4 years ago.. has not won a race for 2 years, (11 races) and he has also never run more than 26f so that extra mile is going to be a real stamina test. Would be a first for a female jockey to win the national too.
6. Balthazar King
KING CONTENDER - A big beast of a horse that excels at long distances and finished 2nd in last years national... although he has only raced once since then, he does have 6 wins in his last 10 races. Definite contender this year again
7. Shutthefrontdoor
FAIRY TALE - Don't believe the hype, this horse winning would be more of a fairy tale than anything else. It has one of the all-time best jockeys riding on it who will be doing everything to win, this is why the odds are so short. The horse is not bad, and has a chance...but I feel he is still too young at 8 years old and lacks the experience - he wouldn't be a bad each way shout - but with the odds, its pointless.
8. Pineau De Re
PAST WINNER - No-one has won it consecutively since Red Rum and Pineau is now 12 years old - so outside of base criteria
9. Ballycasey
NO CHANCE - Was 100/1 before Ruby confirmed he was onboard.. that says it all, the horse has patchy form, doesn't seem to like the step up in class and has never gone a longer distance than 25f. Pulled up in Cheltenham in his last race, but he does go off with a fairly hefty drop in weight, cant see it myself.
10. Spring Heeled
OUTSIDER - Patchy form recently, seems to win and place frequently and has plenty of experience, although nothing at this type of distance. No course experience, but seems to like good ground, there are pro's and con's for this horse and if things go right, could be in the mix at the end - with good odds, it could be worth a punt with an E/W bet.
11. Rebel Rebellion
STAMINA CONCERN - Raced plenty this season with lots of wins and places and in really good form. The right age and weight, has a decent trainer - you'd think this horse would have short odds, but he doesn't have the distance experience and stamina is a massive concern. Has only ran 3m twice, once he was beaten by Soll, the other - he came nowhere, so big doubts on whether he will actually make it round, and if he does, he probably won't be in the mix
12. Dolatulo
LONG DISTANCE A DOUBT - Another horse that just doesn't have the winning experience at lengthy distances. Has won one race at 3m.. but in his other 4 outings at that distance has come absolutely nowhere. Is only a young horse still at 8 years old and has raced plenty, but he seems to excel at shorter distances.
13. Mon Parrain
PATCHY FORM - Very patchy form, out of his 11 races so far, he has won 3 and placed in 2 - so probably can't be relied upon to do anything. The good news is that he only races in 3m+ distances so he has that experience and he has a fair weight for this outing.
14. Carlito Brigante - NON RUNNER
OUTSIDE CHANCE - Has raced plenty and seems to love the jumps, has placed and won numerous time over 3m+ so I don't think his stamina would be an issue and seems to be coming into a nice vein of form in the last year or so since moving stables. Would be a decent E/W bet.
15. Night In Milan
OUTSIDE CHANCE - Has raced plenty, form is ok, hasn't won for a year but has placed quite a few times, has raced plenty of times over 3m.. good age, good weight, ticks nearly all the boxes, if he runs right and stays over the fences then he has a chance to be in the mix.
16. Rubi Light
NO CHANCE - Never won on good ground and only raced 2 times out of his 39 at distances of 3m+ so I doubt he has the stamina to even complete this race.
17. The Druids Nephew
HAS A CHANCE - Odds shortened a lot when he won at Cheltenham last month.. he won by a canter, but it was the defining race of his career so far so the big question is, was that race a one-off or can he reproduce that magic again. He seems to of improved a lot since moving stables less than a year ago, so his form suggests he can and with the same weight as he had at Cheltenham - he definitely has a chance here too.
18. Cause of Causes
TOO YOUNG - 7 years old - so outside of base criteria
19. Godsmejudge
GOOD BET - Has gone the distance in the Scottish grand national at last two attempts finishing 2nd and 1st, but form since then has not been great, although he was carrying much heigher weight then. Weighed fairly, can go the distance, has won big races before, is the right age.. he has a great chance!
20. Al Co
UNDECIDED - This one is tough to write off, he is used to long distances so I have no doubt about his stamina, but last time at Aintree he pulled up and hasn't been seen here for over 3 years since. Beat Godsmejudge in the Scottish national this year so he has some quality, but then his form has been a bit patchy for a while - 10201-0P33. Al Co will either drink everyone else under the table or struggle as he staggers to the finish line - I'm undecided.
21. Monbeg Dude
PROBABLY WON'T IMPROVE - Finished 7th in last years national and placed in 4 of his 5 races since, no doubts about his stamina, he should get round no problem - the problem is, he's not the most prolific horse in the race and hasn't actually won much in his time. Hard to see how he is going to improve as he's on the same weight as last time.
22. Corrin Wood
POOR CHANCE - A horse that is used to running the long distances, but only raced 3 times since March '14.. and pulled up in his last race - hasn't really won anything of note, beaten by other horses racing in the national too, he might get round the course, but cant see him winning it,
23. The Rainbow Hunter
UNRELIABLE - A good horse when he hits his stride, but pulls up and unseats his rider too much for my liking, he unseated his rider in the 2013 & 2014 national and in his only race this year he pulled up too.. think I'd rather back a horse who I think has more potential to get round
24. Saint Are
OUTSIDER - Finished 9th in 2013 and fell last year, since then in his 4 races after a change of stables, he has produced three 3rds and a win. Prior to this, he hasn't actually won much, so if the change of stables is helping bring this horse to his peak, then he has a great chance.
25. Across the Bay
NO CHANCE - Remember that horse that got hampered last year by the loose one... yep Across the Bay was the one hampered. He's predominantly a front-running horse, so will want to lead the pack, and whilst he has a lot of experience with 3m+ he has just two wins and zero places in the last 2 years. I find it hard to pick the quality out in this horse and feel he will struggle to make any impact.
26. Tranquil Sea
TOO OLD - 13 years old - so outside of base criteria
27. Oscar Time
ANCIENT - 14 years old!! - so outside of base criteria
28. Bob Ford
UNRELIABLE - Has pulled up in half of his last 10 outings, saying that, he also won 3 and placed in another. Most of them being at 3m+ so he has the experience of running long distances, Quite obvious that the horse prefers Soft-Heavy ground though and very doubtful he will get that this year.
29. Super Duty
TOO MUCH TO ASK - Has a very impressive 33% win ratio in his 15 races so far, and 2nd in a further 6 of those races... however, all of them came at the start of his career a few years earlier at a different stables. Didn't race at all in 2014 due to an injury and on his two outings this year - didn't really impress. Hasn't gone more than 26f before.. and combine this with him just coming back from injury, it is probably too much to ask for at this stage.
30. Wyck Hill
HAS THE STAMINA - Raced frequently over 3m+ with a few 4milers in there, never run the national before though. If he has a good day at the office, then I wouldn't rule him out winning this as he is a big strong horse...however he has had quite a few disappointing races in his career too.
31. Gas Line Boy
QUESTIONABLE JUMPING - Having pulled up or unseated his rider in 3 of his last 6 races, his jumping is a bit questionable. However, when he gets it right, he gets it right, finishing 1st twice and a 4th in the other 3 races. Has run up to 29f in his previous 3 races, so stamina shouldn't be too much of an issue, but would probably prefer softer ground. Wouldn't rule him out completely, but there are more reliable options out there.
32. Chance Du Roy
HAS A CHANCE - Finished 6th last time out in the national and has run 2 races since, but didn't really impress, finishing 5th in both. Has plenty of course and distance experience, so shouldn't have too many problems getting round and a small drop in weight might help things, like his namesake, he has a chance.
33. Portrait King
NOT A PRETTY PICTURE - A solid horse a few years ago, but raced once in 2013 and pulled up in that, didn't really do much in 2014 either, but 2 wins, a 2nd and a 9th in his last 4 races shows that he might be coming back to his best, however he has only won once on good ground. Has plenty of distance experience although he has never run at Aintree before, I wouldn't be surprised if he makes it round, but IMO he's not a contender to be king of the festival.
34. Owega Star
NO CHANCE - Only run once out of Ireland, so no course experience, no distance experience either with his longest race being 24f. Much more suited to a 2m trek, didn't have a brilliant season, apart from a good weight, its tough to make a good case for him to be the star!
35. River Choice
NO CHANCE - French bred and French trained - not a good combination for the national for a start.. also used to much shorter races so stamina could be a real concern, also getting on a bit at the age of 12. Don't bother.
36. Court By Surprise
COULD SPRING A SURPISE - Hasn't really done much for the past couple of seasons, and hasn't really crept out of the 3m zone for races. So its unsure whether he has the stamina to complete this race, but he is coming into the national from the best form of his career with back-to-back victories. Hasn't run for a while, as he is being saved for this race. Whilst there are possible concerns, he could surprise everyone.
37. Alvarado
E/W ONLY - Jockey has placed in the last 6 nationals!! An incredible record, the horse has a low weight and is the right age.. finished 4th in last years national, has lots of stamina, but just doesn't get round too quickly.. a decent E/W shout.
38. Soll
A SOLID CONTENDER - Finished 7th in the 2013 national after tiring towards the end of the race. Since then, he didn't really do much, but changed stables for this season and won and impressed on both of the races he has raced in. Has course and distance experience and has a very low weight for this (albeit slightly more than 2013) and is expected to improve on his last national outing.
39. Ely Brown
INEXPERIENCED JUMPER - Has only run 4 times over fences and the last time was over a year ago. lso been out injured for the best part of 2014, came back at the start of 2015 and pulled up - that was his last race. Hasn't raced much over 3m either, so stamina could be an issue. Too many negatives to be able to recommend this horse.
40. Royale Knight
A ROYALLY GOOD OUTSIDER - A switch of stables back in 2012 and this horse has been improving ever since. Only predominantly racing in class 3/4 races but has got some good form behind him. Only pulled up once, has the lowest weight and has gone the distance several times before. The big question will be as to whether he will be able to keep up with the big boys and land a consecutive national trophy for his trainer.
